Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-30T00:22:06

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background. Solar winds are currently enhanced, likely by CH17/- fast wind and as this recedes there is a chance for the flux to rise to Moderate, with a slight chance of reach high at any diurnal peak. On the previous 27-day rotation, this fast wind resulted in very little enhancement to electron numbers however, suggesting that only a limited enhancement can be expected on this rotation too.

The associated 24 hr fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period. This is supported by REFM, which despite overestimating values, is now giving good guidance with a steady trend throughout.