Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-29T00:16:30

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16, has remained at background after recent solar wind enhancement and proton storming. Arrival at Earth of the predicted glancing CME during day 1 (29  Aug), alongside the transition into the HSS related to CH17, does have the potential to increase electron flux again once any subsequent geomagnetic activity subsides. However persistence from the previous rotation, suggests very little electron flux enhancement is likely from the fast wind of CH17.

Consequently, the associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with only a chance (20-30%) of rising above, mainly from day 2 (30 Aug) onward. This supported by the output from Met Office REFM, although this model doesn't take account of any CME arrival or upcoming fast wind enhancement, so is likely to be offering rather poor guidance.