Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-27T12:30:17

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES16, has been High throughout the last few days, but declined to Background to Moderate levels early on the 27th. This was likely due to the combined effect of increasing density ahead of the fast wind arrival from CH18, but also potentially related to the slightly increased proton flux due to the M4.9 flare of AR3088. Recovery to high levels is currently uncertain, but likely not to occur until ongoing geomagnetic activity from recent solar wind enhancement day 1 (27th) subsides. A potential CME glance, and also further fast wind arrival on day 2 (28th) into day 3 (29th), will again limit the recovery of flux values and increases uncertainty for the latter part of the period.     

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently expected to fall below Active on day 1 (27th), but with a chance of rising again through the period, albeit with low confidence. This reduction is signalled by REFM, however given the potential enhancements to the solar wind that are expected which currently won't be accounted for by this model, this is likely to be of limited reliability.