Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-27T00:12:27

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES16, has been High throughout the last few days, although the high speed stream that generated current flux levels has waned. Some minor geomagnetic activity is possible from CH18 and then CH17 in the next couple of days. This may give a reduction in electron counts, although it is possible that the geomagnetic activity will be insufficient to cause a significant drop. Further charging may then occur, especially from the HSS from CH17.

The current Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) fluence levels may drop below the Active threshold in the next couple of days, but this is dependent on the level of geomagnetic activity seen from the coronal holes. An increase is then possible later in the period as CH17 starts to wane. MOSWOC REFM is currently under forecasting fluence levels.