Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-26T00:19:10

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 is currently High after recent coronal hole enhancements. With no further enhancements expected which could potentially drop the electron counts, only a gradual reduction in peak values is likely. The electron flux should eventually drop to background and moderate levels perhaps by day 1 (26th) but probably not until day 2 (27th) although confidence is low with regards to timings.

The associated fluence is expected to reflect this decreasing trend, likely remaining Active (above 1e8 pfu) into day 1 (26th), before coming back below threshold soon after. While the trend of the fluence depicted by the Met Office REFM output is accepted, it is clearly under-estimating the electron flux at this stage and should only be considered as a guide.