Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-25T00:00:57

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 is currently High after recent coronal hole and CME enhancements. With no further enhancements expected which could potentially drop the electron counts, only a gradual reduction in peak values is likely. The electron flux should eventually drop to background and moderate levels perhaps by day 2 (26th) although confidence is low with regards to timings.

The associated fluence is expected to reflect this decreasing trend, likely remaining Active (above 1e8 pfu) through today and perhaps lasting into early day 2 (26th), before coming back below threshold thereafter. While the trend of the fluence on our latest REFM is accepted, it is considered an under-estimate at this stage as it shows a forecast of below 1e8 fluence by 25/0900Z, which is too early.