MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-24T00:09:44
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 is currently high after recent coronal hole and CME enhancements to the solar wind environment. With no further CME arrivals expected only a gradual reduction in peak values is likely as the solar wind speed eases over the coming days.
The associated fluence is expected to remain Active throughout, as supported by REFM. This is likely giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-08-24T00:09:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |