Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-23T00:12:17

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 is currently high after recent coronal hole and CME enhancements to the solar wind environment. Any potential drop out of flux is dependent upon the arrival of a CME early on the 23rd, however this is now looking less likely. Furthermore, if it does occur, this will have lower potential impact the latter it does. Due to this generally high flux expected to either persist day 1 or potentially return after any such CME impact. Only a gradual reduction in peak values is then likely

The associated fluence is expected to remain Active throughout, as supported by REFM. This is likely giving good guidance, unless the CME arrival occurs.