Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-22T00:28:21

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 is currently high after recent coronal hole and CME enhancements to the solar wind environment. This high flux is likely to drop out with any further CME, or potential coronal hole fast wind arrival on day 1 and day 2 (22nd and 23rd). The timing and strength of these is low confidence, however as the CME is only indicated to give a glancing impact, whilst the coronal holes are small and not persistent features. A recovery of flux to moderate, perhaps high is then likely later day 3 and 4 (24th and 25th). If the CME misses, and the fast wind arrival is not distinct, then it is possible high flux will persist throughout.

Due to the significant uncertainties in the flux forecast, the extent of Active fluence is Low confidence. On day 1 (23rd) fluence is likely to continue rising, above the Active threshold, before any dropout in flux later, or day 2 (24th). This will likely result in fluence falling below Active again later that day.  There is then a chance of further Active fluence later in the period, depending on how flux recovers. REFM supports Active fluence throughout, however this doesn't take account of any CME or coronal hole fast wind arrival, and is likely over-estimating fluence once this occurs.