Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-21T00:12:52

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GOES-16 has shown a response to both the current fast wind from CH14, but also the successive CMEs, with effects combining to make the electron forecast both volatile and of relatively low confidence.

In the absence of any CMEs, flux levels were expected to rise to be mostly High as the CH14 fast wind eased, however this has been delayed and perhaps dented by a pair of recent CME arrivals. A degree of recovery in values is likely over the remainder of the UTC weekend, although this may now be lower than previous thoughts. A more likely and more lasting reduction in flux may now occur with the arrival of a CME on 22 into 23 August, with another coronal hole fast wind from CH16 on the 23rd. This second coronal hole is not a persistent feature, and appears visually smaller than CH14, with solar wind speeds and the reaction from electron flux probably of lower magnitude as a result.

Overall, the volatile nature of the flux forecast means that the associated 24-hour fluence is low confidence, but should reach its peak for the period before the end of the UTC weekend, with levels then rallying for a time, ahead of more decided declines later in the four days.