Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-20T00:14:33

High energy electron flux has shown a response to both the current fast wind from CH14, but also the successive CMEs, with effects combining to make the electron forecast both volatile and of relatively low confidence.

Allowed to develop fully, the current 650km/s fast wind would very likely prove capable of generating 24-hour integrated Active electron fluence, and may still do so, however this will play off against at least Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 conditions from arriving CMEs, at least into the current UTC weekend and perhaps again with the twin arrivals of a further CME and a CIR leading CH16/- on Tuesday 23 August. This final event is perhaps the most likely to occur - for being partly reliant on a more definite fast wind arrival. This is likely to drop flux levels on onset, however a Chance of Active fluence survives to day four as a result of levels leading into the UTC day, i.e. prior to any CIR or CME.

As stated, there is high uncertainty in the forecast, however levels reached by the end of the current UTC weekend should perhaps then be maintained until Tuesday's CME and CIR. Active fluence is near-evens in terms of risk, but perhaps slightly more likely than not to occur before the more definite decline before midweek.