Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-19T00:32:19

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start the period at Background to Moderate levels. They are expected to remain at this level during days 1 and 2 (19th and 20th), as ongoing high speed stream and CME influences suppress flux levels, due to both geomagnetic effects and deformation of the van Allen belt. A rise in flux levels is then expected during days 3 and 4 (21st and 22nd), as geomagnetic activity subsides, and the high threshold (>1e3 pfu) is likely to be breached. 

Corresponding electron fluence values are expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through much of this period. However, an increasing trend is likely from day 3 (21st) and it is likely they will exceed the Active threshold on day 4 (22nd).  REFM forecast values are currently too high, and won't be taking account of the CME effects. Therefore REFM trends should not be relied upon through this period.