Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-17T00:11:28

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will start the period at high levels. During Day 1 (17 Aug) a CME and HSS arrival is expected which is likely to suppress flux levels due to both geomagnetic effects and deformation of the van Allen belt. A further potential CME arrival later Day 2 or early Day 3 (18-19 Aug) may continue the suppressed flux levels. A rise is possible once again on Day 4 (20 Aug) as geomagnetic activity begins to subside.

Electron fluence values will start above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but are likely to drop sharply with the expected CME arrival, probably below Active levels. They are most likely to stay below during Days 2 and 3, perhaps with a rise on Day 4. REFM forecast values are currently too low, and this model won't be taking account of the likely CME arrivals. As such although it is forecasting a decline and looks like it is currently showing a trend in line with the forecast above, this will be for the wrong reasons and therefore REFM should not be relied upon through this period.