Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-16T00:22:35

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will probably remain at mostly high levels during the next 24 hours. On day 2 (17th), electrons are expected to become suppressed due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity associated with the arrival of the coronal hole enhancement and the CME(s). A rise towards the High threshold is likely once again later on day 3 and into day 4 (18th and 9th) as geomagnetic activity begins to subside.

Electron fluence values are expected to remain above the Active threshold through day 1 and into day 2 (17th and 18th), with REFMs guidance thought to be slightly too low. During day 2 and into day 3 (17th and 18th) fluence values are likely to drop below the Active threshold although in the table above elevated probabilities have been maintained to indicate the possibility for fluence levels to remain above the active threshold.