Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-15T00:16:35

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at moderate to high levels throughout the next two days, with this occurring during the diurnal peak. On day 3 (17th), electrons are expected to become suppressed due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity associated with the arrival of the coronal hole enhancement and the CME(s).

Electron fluence values could be above the Active threshold to start the UTC day of day 1 (14th) and the Met Office REFM output appears to be offering sensible guidance, with a probable decline in levels of activity as depicted by the values of occurrence. An uptick in activity is then probable on day 4 (18th) from the anticipated elevated solar wind regime which should be well established by that time.