Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-13T00:12:44

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16 was High throughout the UTC day of Friday 12 August, and again showed a slightly unusual character in its diurnal maximum coming near the time of its usual minimum (at GOES16) at 0210UTC. This implies that the flux and fluence could have potential to rise further in the immediate term once the brakes of geomagnetic activity are released, with the caveat that the activity has not redistributed electrons.

All considered, even if there is a flux rise, the fluence is unlikely to have the legs to reach Very Active, with comfortably Active levels probably maintained throughout the four days now there are signs of geomagnetic activity and the driving coronal holes waning.