Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-12T00:19:28

Electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are currently proving strongly reactive to the recent prolonged fast wind from the succession of CH09/+, CH10 and now perhaps imminently CH12. The past day's peak flux was recorded slightly in advance of where it ought to occur in the absence of significant geomagnetic activity (which would normally be in the late afternoon UTC at GOES16). This implies that if no redistribution has occurred as a result, then slightly higher 24-hour electron fluence levels may be realised on Friday 12 August, albeit probably a fair way short of Very Active.

The peak fluence for the four days ought to become established on day one, or else day two at the latest (Saturday 13 August) with no further impetus to increase counts in the forecast thereafter.