Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-11T00:10:40

Electron flux is expected to be at mainly high levels through the next few days, with a gradually reducing trend. There is a likelihood of predominantly moderate levels, especially on diurnal minimums towards the end of the period, as the high speed stream is expected to slowly wane.

Fluence is above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is expected to remain above this level through the next three days, albeit with a gradual declining trend anticipated. There is some uncertainty as to how quickly fluence levels will reduce as the high speed stream eases, but levels should return to near or just below Active by the end of the period. REFM is over-estimating fluence levels at present but the general trend looks good, and shows a peak on day 1 followed by a slow decline over the subsequent couple of days.