MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-08T12:03:35
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16, is currently at Background levels.
The geomagnetic forecast is now in a state of flux, with a more protracted risk of G1 now possible given the opening up of CH12. This may serve to dent counts of electrons at GEO, however the upward trend should remain. It is perhaps now likely that High flux should result later this working week UTC, perhaps with interruptions at first before a more sustained tenure by day four, Thursday 11 August.
Active electron fluence is perhaps now Likely on day four, Thursday 11 August, as an eventual result of the successive fast winds of CH09, CH10 and now perhaps also CH12.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-08-08T12:03:35 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 10% |