Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-08T00:23:41

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16, is currently at background levels. Due to the current enhancement to the solar wind environment from the fast wind of CH09, electron populations amongst the Van Allen Belts are expected to increase as a result. A more notable enhancement is then expected in the next 24 hours as the HSS related to CH10/+ connects. Flux levels are then expected to rise from Day 2 (9 Aug) onward, probably peaking at high during intervals of diurnal maximum. The associated fluence will start below the Active threshold, with a rising trend, and a chance of reaching Active by Days 3 and 4 (10 and 11 Aug). This rising trend, perhaps breaching the Active threshold, is likely to continue beyond the period. This is supported by Met Office REFM output, which maintains levels below Active, but with a steadily rising trend though the forecast period.