Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-07T00:22:01

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16, is currently at background levels. Despite an imminently expected enhancement to the solar wind environment from the fast wind of CH09, electron populations amongst the Van Allen Belts are expected to only slightly rise as a result. A more notable enhancement is then expected day 2 (8th), with the fast wind of CH10/+. Flux levels then rising day 3 onward (9th), perhaps peaking at high during periods of diurnal maximum.

The associated fluence is expected to persist below the Active threshold, but with a rising trend, and a chance of rising above the Active threshold by the end of day 4 (10th). This rising trend, perhaps above the Active threshold is likely to continue beyond the period. This is supported by REFM, which maintains levels below Active, but with a rising trend by the end of the period.