Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-06T00:08:21

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16, is expected to initially be at background levels, but may increase through the period to reach high levels at the diurnal maxima by Days 3 and 4 (08-09 Aug). This is due to a likely increase in wind speeds through Days 1 and 2 from a high speed stream potentially driving some electron charging. The corresponding 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) at first, with an increasing trend possible through Days 3 and 4 and a chance of reaching Active levels at this time.

The Met Office REFM is unlikely to be taking account of the increase in wind speeds early in this period with significant differences from the previous rotation apparent. As such the early part of the period is reasonable, but fluence levels are likely underforecast later in the period.