Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-05T00:26:22

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16, is expected to remain mostly at background to moderate levels, but with a chance of approaching high levels at the diurnal maxima during day 4 (8th). The corresponding 24 hour fluence is most expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with initially a steady trend but then an increasing trend through day 4 (8th)

Despite the Met Office REFM output currently over estimating the electron fluence, the overall guidance of the model is considered good, with the forecast fluence remaining below the Active threshold for days 1-3 (6-8th).