Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-03T00:13:03

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is initially expected to remain mostly at background levels, but a chance of rising to Moderate and approaching High (1000 pfu) at diurnal peak. This will most likely occur as solar winds ease later in the period allowing any recent enhanced electron population in the Van Allen Belt to relax back to GEO. 

The associated 24 hour fluence, however, is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout. While an increasing trend is likely, electron flux levels are currently not expected to persist at High for a sufficiently long period of time to result in fluence reaching Active levels. This is supported by REFM which is currently giving good guidance.