MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-02T00:22:43
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is initially expected to remain mostly at background to moderate levels, with an increasing chance of breaching the 1000 pfu high threshold during the diurnal maximum. This is due to the charging effects of the HSS from CH07/- until day 3, then the reduction in solar winds speeds allowing the Van Allen belts to relax late day 3 into day 4.
The 24 hour fluence is most likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) with an increasing trend through the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-08-02T00:22:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |