Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-08-01T00:27:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is initially expected to remain mostly at background to moderate levels due to the suppression effects of the HSS from CH07/-. There is a chance of flux levels rising later to give high levels at the diurnal maxima by day 3, then perhaps becoming prolonged high by day 4 (04 Aug) as the charging effects of the HSS become apparent.

The 24 hour fluence is most likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) until day 4 when the cessation of the HSS from CH07/- will make Active fluence likely.