MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-31T00:21:06
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is expected to continue fluctuating between background and moderate levels. This activity may rise in response to any enhancement, reaching High levels during diurnal peaks. The corresponding 24-hour fluence will most likely remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period, with any enhancement unlikely to bring sufficiently persistent High flux to reach the Active level. This is supported by the Met Office REF model output.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-07-31T00:21:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |