MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-30T00:17:31
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is expected to continue fluctuating between background and moderate levels. This is likely to increase in response to any enhancement, perhaps briefly reaching High levels on day 3 and 4 during diurnal max.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the period, with any enhancement unlikely to bring sufficiently persistent High flux to breach the Active level. This is supported by the REFM output.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-07-30T00:17:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |