Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-28T00:15:28

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue fluctuating between background and moderate levels on days 1 & 2, perhaps briefly exceeding high during the diurnal peak (as it did over the last few days). However the arrival of the high speed stream from CH04 on day 3 will most likely see electron counts fall to background. Flux levels may increase on day 4, but data obtained from the previous rotation indicate that the rise was slow and only exceeded high levels after several days, way beyond this forecast period.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period, perhaps exhibiting a slight rising trend at the end of this period. This is supported by the REFM output.