Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-27T00:22:14

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has exhibited a declining trend despite recent solar wind enhancements. There is still the potential for flux levels to rise a little from day 1 to day 3 but with coronal hole 04 now facing Earth, there is an increasing chance for the associated high speed stream to arrive on day 4, which would lead to a drop in electron flux. Consequently, electron flux levels are expected to continue fluctuating between Background to Moderate from day 1 to day 3, perhaps reaching High during the diurnal cycle. Beyond that, a more persistent return to Moderate or Background levels appears more probable. 

The corresponding 24-hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period, while perhaps displaying a slight rising trend over the next few days This is somewhat supported by the latest REFM output, with current levels of fluence very close to the forecast. The trend is however different, indicating a gradual decrease.