Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-26T00:15:09

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) should soon reach an equilibrium in a new higher diurnal oscillation - a response to the now decaying recent fast wind from coronal hole(s) CH01 and/or CH02. This is likely to bring a more lasting period of High flux from day one, Tuesday 26 July, although the influence of the 21 July CME over the past weekend has clearly dampened the prospects of Active fluence occurring, with electron levels in the Van Allen belt sampled by GOES16 clearly down on those of last rotation.

There is a Chance of Active 24-hour fluence being realised from day one, Tuesday 26 July, but this should be the peak for the four-day period as a whole, and should this level not be reached, it is unlikely to for the remainder of the forecast. A gradual ebbing away of electron counts is otherwise expected in the slow regime that should characterise the working week.