Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-25T00:18:47

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to respond with an increasing amplitude oscillation in the coming 24 hours, probably in a manner roughly akin to the past rotation. The rationale for this is that the fast wind from the current persistent coronal hole(s) CH01/02 appears to have out-lasted the 21 July CME's effects to continue to charge the Van Allen belts to some degree.

The risk of 24-hour integrated fluence breaching Active is therefore upwards, probably finding its level at the very start of the coming working week UTC before stabilising.