Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-23T00:26:52

The high energy electron flux is expected to follow a generally increasing trend on diurnal highs throughout the period, but is likely to be suppressed on day 1 (23 July) due to the effects of an anticipated full halo CME arrival. Once the effects of the CME dissipate, the rising trend is expected to become re-established from day 2 (24 July), with an increasing chance of persistent levels above the high (1000pfu) threshold.

Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level in day 1, but with a rising trend from day 2 in line with increasing flux levels, as CME effects wane. There is then an increasing risk of reaching the Active threshold as the period progresses.