Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-21T00:13:17

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 has recovered from the recent CME and associated fast wind, peaking at 1920 pfu at 20/1620 UTC during the diurnal cycle. A similar cycle is expected to occur on day 1 (21st), giving a good chance for the corresponding 24 hour fluence to exceed the Active threshold. The arrival of the fast speed stream originating from CH01 and CH02 and a significant chance of a G1 will however disturb this initial rise on day 2 (22nd), generating a temporary suppression of the electron counts. These may recover and perhaps exceed the high level on day 3 but we'll probably have to wait until day 4 to see a new equilibrium being achieved, with high flux returning for longer periods of time.

The associated fluence is likely to rise above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on day 1 (21st) and day 4 (24th). The latest REFM is not considered to give good guidance on this occasion.