Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-20T00:27:22

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 has been mostly at background due to the recent CME and fast wind arrival, but has recovered to Moderate as solar winds eased. With further rising values possible through day 1 (20th) and day 2 (21st), before the arrival of the next fast wind enhancement, Moderate to High levels are likely to be observed and exceeding the alert level at times (1000 pfu). A further dropout is then likely either late day 2 or day 3 with the onset of this next fast wind enhancement, however this fast wind is subsequently also likely to also enhance electron flux populations in the Van Allen Belts, with high flux returning through day 4 (23rd),

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active threshold, but likely to rise day 1 (20th) approaching the Active threshold, likely later in the day, and through day 2 (21st). This risk recedes with the onset of the fast winds of CH02 and CH01 and any subsequent dropout, before likely returning day 4 (23rd). REFM is giving poor guidance, as this is likely not accounting for the recent observed solar wind enhancement.