Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-19T00:26:14

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as measured by GOES-16 has recently dropped out due to recent solar wind enhancement. With further potential enhancements expected day 1 (19th), observed flux levels are likely to remain subdued, before rising again day 2 and into day 3 (20th and 21st) as any solar wind pressure on the Van Allen belts declines. Peak levels are likely to return to moderate with a chance of diurnal peaks at high (greater than 1000 pfu). A further dropout is then possible later day 3 or day 4 (21st or 22nd) due to the fast wind arrivals from the pair of coronal holes CH02 and CH01,

The associated 24 hour fluence has recently fallen below the Active threshold, and with flux levels likely to only gradually return to a diurnal peak of High, there is now only a slight chance of Active fluence returning late day 1 (19th), and a chance of returning through days 2 and day 3 (20th and 21st) as solar winds ease from recent enhancements. REFM is giving a good indication of expected trends, remaining below Active.