Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-18T00:11:16

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has changed character in the past 24 hours in rising to a new higher diurnal oscillation in the wake of the recent high speed stream from CH99/+. This was expected given persistence forecasting, and should last until any CME influence on 19 into 20 July.

MOSWOC REFM is showing a slightly damped trend versus current observations, and it will not react to the transient-dominated forecast period, although the roughly level trajectory until any CME onset is accepted. Active fluence is Expected until later on 19 July, perhaps persisting as late as 20 July before a sharp drop-off following any CME arrival. Fluence levels probably will not recover in the period, with any fast wind from CH01/02 at the very end of the four days probably taking longer than the 96 hours of this forecast period to manifest as recovering fluence, although an eventual late-week rise is expected to some degree.