Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-16T00:08:40

The diurnal variation in high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently peaking at Moderate levels. The elevated solar wind speed ought to give an increase in flux over the coming days. Persistence from the last rotation is offering a reasonable match, which also suggests that an increase is likely. An anticipated CME arrival is unlikely to arrive until after this four day period, so any CME suppression is expected to be after the forecast period, although undetected CMEs are always possible given the numerous sunspots and filaments on the disc.

Fluence is expected to rise during this period, with Active (1e8 integrated pfu) becoming likely by Days 3 and 4 (18-19 July). REFM's increasing fluence signal currently seems reasonable.