Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-15T00:20:17

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at moderate levels. The current elevated solar wind speeds will cause some electron charging over the coming days, with the electron flux levels forecast to increase. It is expected that the 1e3 pfu Active  flux threshold will be breached near the diurnal maximum on days 2-4 (16th-18th). Corresponding electron fluence levels are also expected to increase, and are expected to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, most likely late day 3 (17th). 

Therefore, the Met Office REFM model is considered to be providing good guidance, showing a rising trend, but as the model is currently over-estimating the fluence, the Active threshold is expected to be breached slightly later than indicated by the model.