Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-14T00:32:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. The current elevated solar wind speeds is likely to cause some electron charging over the coming days, Electron Flux levels are forecast to increase over the next 4 days and it is possible that the 1e3 pfu Active threshold may be breached near the diurnal maximum on days 2-4 (15th-17th). Corresponding electron fluence levels are therefore also expected to rise over the coming days and there is a chance that they will exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold from late on day 2 (15th).  However, it is currently thought that they will most likely stay just below this threshold, as presented by REFM and persistence data, which is considered to be providing good guidance.