Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-13T00:13:07

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. CH99 is currently bringing an increase in wind speeds which may cause some electron charging, however the anticipated CME arrival early on day 1 (13 July) is likely to cause a temporary suppression in electron levels.

The risk of the electron flux becoming moderate or high then increases dramatically over time as the magnetic cloud draws to an end, allowing the Van Allen belts to recharge themselves. However confidence is low as the rise is rarely immediate and can take a few days to become effective. The corresponding electron fluence is expected to rise later in the period, perhaps exceeding the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on day 4 (16 July). 

The latest REFM is considered to provide good guidance with regards to the trend, however it is based on the electron flux observed over the past rotation and as such, will not have taken the anticipated CME into account. The rise is therefore expected to be delayed by at least 24 hours.