Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-08T00:18:29

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background to moderate levels. Electron flux might increase through this period under the influence of a weak HSS. High (1000 pfu) flux levels might be reached during the diurnal maxima later in the period, but confidence is low.

Electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold. An upward trend is possible following the current weak coronal hole connection, but with low confidence for the magnitude of this. Currently the fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold. Therefore the Met Office REFM model is considered to be offering good guidance.