Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-07T00:20:22

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. Electron flux might increase through this period with anticipated elevated wind speeds from CH97. However, a low confidence CME glancing blow is possible early on Day 2 (8 July), which would temporarily suppress flux levels if it occurs. High (1000 pfu) flux levels might be reached during the diurnal maximum with some uncertainty due to the potential CME effects.

Electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold. Fluence is considered most likely to remain below the Active threshold through the period, although this carries a degree of uncertainty due to the significant difference in coronal hole extent compared to the previous rotation and the possibility of CME effects. An upward trend is possible following any coronal hole connection but with low confidence for the magnitude of this. REFM output is currently considered to be giving good guidance.