Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-06T00:08:53

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently at background levels. Electron flux is likely to increase through this period with anticipated elevated wind speeds from CH97. However, a low confidence CME glancing blow is possible early on Day 3 (08 July), which would suppress flux levels if it occurs. Overall, High (1000 pfu) flux levels may be reached during this period, but with some uncertainty due to the potential CME effects.

Electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold. Fluence is considered most likely to remain below the Active threshold through the period, although this carries a degree of uncertainty due to the significant difference in coronal hole extent compared to the previous rotation and the possibility of CME effects. An upward trend is assessed as being likely following anticipated coronal hole connection but with low confidence for the magnitude of this. REFM is not currently showing any increase in fluence levels as we haven't yet seen an increase in wind speeds, so this is likely to be an underestimate at this time.