Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-04T00:08:37

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mainly background levels. Electron flux is likely to oscillate between background and moderate levels, at least initially. However, there is a likely increasing chance of high (1e3 pfu) flux levels being reached during the forecast period due to anticipated high speed stream influence.

Electron fluence is currently well below the Active threshold. Fluence is currently considered most likely to remain below the Active threshold through the period, although this carries a degree of uncertainty due to the significant difference in coronal hole extent compared to the previous rotation. An upward trend is assessed as being likely following anticipated coronal hole connection but with low confidence for the magnitude of this. Recurrence is not considered to be a very good guide at present, and REFM maintains very low Fluence values, with no upward trend, which may be a little deficient.