Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-03T00:30:21

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has fallen to mainly background levels due to the redistribution in the belts following the geomagnetic storming on 01 July. Electron flux is likely to oscillate between mainly moderate and background levels due to the continued risk of storms. However, high (1e3 pfu) levels could be reached in any calmer intervals due to the large input of electrons into the belts from the forecast CMEs and high speed streams.

Electron fluence values have exhibited a sharp decline following the severe drop in electron flux values over the last 24 hours. Fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the next four days, although slight upward trends are possible due to the possible periodic increases in electron flux.