Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-30T00:12:55

The High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) was High from 29/0935 UTC, peaking at 3490 pfu at 29/1610 UTC.

Electron flux levels are expected to continue fluctuating between Moderate and High until at least Day 2 (1st July). Beyond that, a drop in electron flux to more persistently Moderate or Background levels appears more probable. 

Corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence level until at least Day 2 (1st July). After this it may lower to Moderate levels, though confidence in the timing of this occurring is not high. Active levels of fluence were observed around 24 hours later than standard 27-day persistence had indicated, though this and the REFM forecast indicate fluence levels remaining above the Active threshold well into Day 2. This gives added confidence to the current forecast.