Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-29T00:29:46

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, remained at mainly High levels during the period, only briefly dropping to Moderate between 28/2205-2315 UTC.

Electron flux levels are expected to continue at mainly High levels until at least day 2 (30th), thereafter a drop in electron flux to more persistently Moderate or Background levels appears probable. A further drop in electron counts could take place with the arrival of the very slow CME on the 2nd (Day 4), though confidence in this is medium and any impacts likely very limited. 

Corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence level until at least day 2. After this it may lower to Moderate levels, though confidence in the timing of this occurring is medium. Active levels of fluence were observed around 24 hours later than standard 27-day persistence had indicated, though this and the REFM forecast indicate fluence levels remaining above the Active threshold well into day 2 and perhaps into day 3. This gives added confidence to the current forecast.