Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-28T00:08:58

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, reached and remained at High levels from 27/0750UTC onwards.

Electron flux levels are expected to continue at mainly High levels until at least day 3 (30th), thereafter a drop in electron flux to more persistently Moderate or Background levels appears probable. Any CME glance that occurs early on day 1 (28th) may temporarily lead to a drop out in values, however this is very low confidence and only has a slight chance of occurring.

Corresponding electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence level until at least day 3. After this it may lower to Moderate levels, though confidence in this aspect is fairly low. Active levels of fluence were observed around 24 hours later than standard 27-day persistence had indicated, though this and the REFM forecast indicate fluence levels remaining above the Active threshold well into day 3. This gives added confidence to the current forecast.