MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-27T00:09:14
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, returned to Moderate to High levels from just before midday UTC, due to coronal hole high speed stream influence.
Flux levels are expected to peak diurnally at High levels. Any CME glance that occurs early on day 2 (28th) may lead to a drop out in values, however this is very low confidence.
The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active level at first, but rising with a chance of breaching the Active (1e8) threshold from day 2 (28th), similar to the previous rotation, but around 24 hours later than a standard 27-day persistence would suggest. REFM now indicates a similar increasing trend, and is considered good advice.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-06-27T00:09:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 5% |